I have written numerous NBA team historical surveys at The New Leaf Journal. Readers will find that I seldom rely solely, or at all, on team win-loss records. Instead, I almost always incorporate net rating, which is a team’s points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed, or I rely upon SRS, which is a team’s scoring margin minus its strength of schedule. See the links below for five examples:
- Best and Worst NBA Title Defenses Since 1983-84
Examining every NBA defending champion from the 1983-84 through 2024-25 seasons in terms of various team-level stats, including win-loss records, net rating, and SRS. - Worst NBA Playoff Teams By SRS (1984-2024)
Examining teams that made the NBA playoffs with negative SRS from the 1983-84 season through 2023-24. - Best Record vs Best Net Rating in 51 NBA Seasons
Looking at the playoff success of the teams with the best regular season win-loss records and best regular season net ratings and SRS from 1973-74 through 2023-24. - Examining Whether Defense Wins NBA Championships
Comparing the relative offensive and relative defensive ratings of every NBA champion from 1973-74 through 2023-24 to assess whether “defense wins championships” (relative offensive rating minus relative defensive rating equals net rating) - Pistons, Lakers, and the 2004 NBA Finals
Using various advanced team-level statistics including net rating to reassess whether the Lakers should have been favored over the Pistons going into the 2004 NBA Finals (the Pistons famously demolished the Lakers despite being perceived as the underdog).
In the end of the day, there is some truth to former NFL Coach Bill Parcells’ quote: “You are what your record says you are.” For example, as far as NBA playoff seeding goes, the Dallas Mavericks earned the west’s number one seed going into the 2007 NBA Playoffs with their 67-15 record, while the 61-21 Phoenix Suns were the second seed and the 58-24 San Antonio Spurs third. But a decent number of analysts, me included, tabbed the Spurs as favorite (I could not find a good example, but I recall some ESPN writers cited to Net Rating in favoring the Spurs in pre-playoff predictions) — thanks in no small part to additional context about the performance of the three teams that season. See the chart below:
| Team | 06-07 RS Rec | 06-07 RS Net | 06-07 SRS | Playoff Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 67-15 | +8.0 | +7.28 | First Round |
| Phoenix Suns | 61-21 | +7.6 | +7.28 | Second Round |
| San Antonio Spurs | 58-24 | +9.3 | +8.35 | Champion |
Despite having the third best regular season league record in 2006-07 (the Eastern Conference one-seed was 53-29), the Spurs had the best net rating and SRS by significant margins. To be sure, none of this predicted the Mavericks losing decisively in the first round of the West Playoffs against the eight-seed Golden State Warriors (42-40, -0.3 net rating, -0.00 SRS) or that the Spurs’ 88-85 game six win over the Suns in the West Semifinals to take a 3-2 series lead would benefit from two Suns starters, Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw, being suspended after taking a step off the bench in game five after Spurs reserve forward Robert Horry hip-checked the MVP-runner-up, Steve Nash (the coinciding Horry suspension was not quite as damaging to the Spurs). In the end, however, net rating and SRS offered some indication that the Spurs were the best team that season, notwithstanding their win-loss record, and that the Suns were at least as on par with the Mavericks, notwithstanding the six-game win-loss record difference.
(Note: I drafted this article on January 6, 2026. All references to and notes about statistics in the 2025-26 NBA season are up to date as of the conclusion of January 5, 2026.)
While I always explain what net rating and SRS are and why I think they are useful when I employ them in my articles, I came across a January 5, 2025 report by Bruno Feliks on Basketball network that I found instructive enough to base a small article on. The subject of Mr. Feliks’ article is the current 2025-2026 Los Angeles Lakers, which remarkably features as one of their top-three players a certain LeBron James. Nineteen years ago Mr. James was the star of the Cleveland Cavaliers team that was swept by the Spurs in the 2007 NBA Finals (the 2006-07 Cavaliers were 50-32, +4.2 net rating, +3.33 SRS).
When Basketball Network published Mr. Feliks’ article, the Lakers were sitting with a solid 22-11 record in the 2025-26 regular season. Were they to carry that winning percentage throughout the season, they would end the 82-game regular season with a 54-55 record. However, Mr. Feliks noted that there is some statistical evidence that the Lakers may not be as good as their current 22-11 record suggests:
The Lakers are currently standing at a net rating of -0.2, according to NBA.com.
Bruno Feliks
This means that despite having won 22 of 33 games, the Lakers have actually been out-scored over those 33 games, allowing 0.2 points more per 100 possessions than they scored. Mr. Feliks dug a little deeper into the Lakers’ poor statistical fundamentals:
The fact is that the Lakers are a perfect 12–0 in clutch situations this season, which is an incredible achievement. At the same time, in each of their 11 losses, they were beaten by double digits.
Bruno Feliks
The NBA did not track “clutch situations” back in my day, but a Sporting News article on the Lakers’ most recent “clutch” win on January 4, 2025, explains that “[t]he NBA defines clutch time as any situation in which the score is within five points during the final five minutes of the fourth quarter over overtime.” I see some potential issues with that definition which may call into question its usefulness, but setting that aside, it clearly paints an interesting picture. The Lakers have been extraordinarily successful in close games in 2024-25 while having a tendency to lose by wide margins in non-close games.
One could take a very glass-half full approach and argue that this bodes well for the Lakers. The Lakers are clutch! With Luka Doncic, who has a colorable statistical claim to being the best offensive perimeter player in the NBA, rising star Austin Reeves, and LeBron James, who while 41 years of age, is one of the great playoff performers in NBA history, the Lakers may be well-poised to grind out close wins in the playoffs. However, I would be more inclined – based on the stats and probability (note I have not watched any games in 2025-26) – to view the Lakers’ record with skepticism. While I do not discount that some players and play-styles are better in “clutch” situations than others (I vaguely recall a study from 12-15 years ago that showed that prime Chris Paul was extraordinarily adept in such cases), there is a distinct element of randomness in “clutch” games that is largely eliminated in decisive wins. The Houston Rockets, who also sit at 22-11 (as of the publication of this article), have a net rating of +8.6 and SRS of +7.65. While they are neck-and-neck with the Lakers for playoff seeding at this still-early state of the season, their record is much more consistent with the fundamentals (indeed, their “Pythagorean Wins,” which estimates record based on SRS, suggests a record of 24-9) than the Lakers, which are 6-0 in games decided by 4 points (all of which fall under the broader “clutch situation” category where the Lakers are 12-0).
(Long-time fans of LeBron James know well about “clutch situation” randomness. Mr. James’ second of four championships game in a seven-game series win over the San Antonio Spurs in the 2013 NBA Finals. The Heat needed an overtime win in game six to force game seven. The final two possessions involved Spurs’ forward Kawhi Leonard (82.5% free throw shooter that season) missing one of two free throws (leaving the Spurs’ lead at 3 instead of 4) and Heat forward Chris Bosh snagging an offensive rebound off would-be game tying three pointer by Mr. James, setting the stage for Ray Allen’s exceptionally difficult backpedaling corner three as the clock wound down to send the game to overtime, where the Heat would prevail 103-100 before winning the winner-take-all game seven 95-88.)
While I cannot weigh in on the 2025-26 Lakers from the perspective of having analyzed their on-court play, I suppose their “lucky” start does not, by itself, rule them out as contenders, but it does not bode well. My survey on whether defense wins championships ascertained that most NBA Champions are clearly above average on both offense and defense. and only the 2000-01 Lakers (going back to 1973-74) had a below-average regular season defense. However, the Lakers’ current net rating would be historically poor for a champion. Going back to 1973-74, the worst regular season net rating for a champion was the 1977-78 Washington Bullets’ (now Wizards) +0.9, which, while subpar, is quite a bit better than -0.2. The 2022-23 Denver Nuggets won the title with a +3.4 net rating, which is sixth worst since 1973-74, but that is an even better showing than -0.2.
However, while the 2022-23 Champion Nuggets are not perfect inspiration for the Lakers, the team they defeated in the Finals, the 2022-23 Miami Heat, may offer some hope. That Heat team is the only team in the 16-team playoff era (going back to 1983-84) to make the NBA Finals with a negative net rating (-0.3) and SRS (-0.13). The Heat finished with a 44-38 win-loss record, which is behind the Lakers’ current pace. Of course, there are good reasons to caution against predicting similar playoff success for the Lakers without significant improvement in their fundamentals between now and the post-season. Firstly, that Heat team was only the fourth NBA Finalist going back to 1949-50 to have a negative SRS, with the other three being the 1980-81 Houston Rockets, 1958-59 Minneapolis Lakers (now Los Angeles), and 1956-57 St. Louis Hawks (now Atlanta). Secondly, in order to reach the Finals, the Heat defeated the Milwaukee Bucks (58-24, +3.6 net rating, +3.61 SRS), New York Knicks (47-35, +3.0 net rating, +2.99 SRS), and Boston Celtics (57-25, +6.5 net rating, +6.38 SRS). While that is far from the weakest playoff slate overcome by an NBA finalist, the 2025-26 Western Conference, as of the publication of the instant article, includes the Oklahoma City Thunder (30-7, +13.5 net rating, +12.04 SRS), San Antonio Spurs (25-10, +5.5 net rating, +5.26 SRS), Denver Nuggets (24-12, +6.1 net rating, +5.05 SRS), the aforementioned Houston Rockets (22-11, +8.6 net rating, +7.65 SRS), and the Minnesota Timberwolves (23-13, +4.9 net rating, +3.44 SRS). Based on current ratings, the top of the 2025-26 Western Conference profiles as better than the 2022-23 Eastern Conference (note the Thunder’s outlier numbers come after going 6-6 in their last 12 games). Assuming the Lakers improve and post better end-season numbers than the 2022-23 Heat, we could also point from recent history to the 2017-18 Cleveland Cavaliers, which LeBron James led to the Finals after the team posted a middling regular season profile of 50-32, +1.0 net rating, and +0.59 SRS. Reaching the Finals involved a second round sweep of the Toronto Raptors, which had the championship-caliber fundamentals of a 59-23 record, +7.9 net rating, and +7.29 SRS, and a much closer seven-game conference finals win over the Boston Celtics (55-27, +3.7 net rating, +3.23 SRS). Of course, that Cavaliers team not only had won the Eastern Conference three years running (and won the NBA Championship in 2015-16), it featured a version of LeBron James who was still the best player in the world, and Mr. James had one of his best of many playoff runs in 2018. Mr. James is now 41 (although no team other than perhaps the 2024-25 Dallas Mavericks would complain about having Mr. Doncic as its top player). Combine those factors with the fact that the 2017-18 Eastern Conference was not the 2025-26 Western Conference, and I would be skeptical pointing to the 2017-18 Cavaliers as anything more than an unusual case.
Taken together, it would be nearly unprecedented for a team with the Lakers current net rating and SRS to make the Finals (especially given the strength of the Western Conference), and wholly unprecedented for such a team to win the Finals (while the 1956-57 Hawks came very close, losing game seven of the Finals against the Boston Celtics in double overtime, relying on examples from 69 years ago is less than ideal). Taken together, anyone hoping for a deep playoff run by the Lakers should be watching to see, among other things, if the Lakers trade some of their early season “clutch” wins for decisive wins while cutting down on the blow-out losses, combined with evidence of diminished play from conference rivals, most notably the Thunder and Rockets.
