I followed college football for much of the 2000s and last followed it closely in 2010, and I dare say that the 2006 National Championship game between Texas and USC was one of the best sporting events I have watched live. Despite not closely following college football too closely anymore, I read interesting stories about it when I come across them and am tangentially aware of what is going on (see e.g., my article on Texas A&M’s remarkably expensive buyout of its now-former Coach). This year was the first year of a new 12-team playoff format. I was aware that Army was having its best season in a very long time and was on the periphery of the playoff mix thanks to its being in position to win its first conference championship – Army had been an independent unaffiliated with any conference prior to this season. Army did not ultimately make the playoffs, being the second highest ranked “non-power-four conference champion” when there was only one automatic playoff bid available for the highest ranked non-power-four conference champion. However, something caught my attention about the playoff selection process: The traditional Army-Navy rivalry game was played one week after the playoff field was set and the broader array of bowl game match-ups had been decided. After Army ended up losing its rivalry game against Navy, I wondered whether the playoff and bowl game selection process contemplated the timing of the Army-Navy game, and if so, how?
I conducted a research investigation and am now able to answer the questions I asked, which I will do after briefly explaining the background for people less familiar with the torrid history of the college football postseason selection process.
The College Football Playoff Format
There was no playoff back when I followed college football. Instead, the best teams were selected for bowl games and two teams were selected to play in the BCS (Bowl Championship Series) National Championship game based solely on their “regular season” performance (the BCS format was used from 1998-2013). Things usually worked out in such a way that the selection for the National Championship game itself was not too controversial, but there were exceptions – most notably in the 2003 season when Louisiana State defeated Oklahoma in the BCS National Championship game but the Associated Press poll ranked USC number one at the end of the season, leading to the only proverbial national championship split of the old BCS era. Beginning in 2014, college football switched to a four-team playoff and beginning this season, it expanded to a 12-team playoff.
The current college football playoff format works roughly as follows. First, the champions of the “power-four conferences” – Atlantic Coast Conference (“ACC”), Big 12 (16 teams), Big Ten (which now has 18 teams), Southeastern Conference (“SEC”) – are each guaranteed spots in the 12-team playoff. There is a single guaranteed playoff bid for the highest ranked champion from the five non-power four conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference (“MAC”), Mountain West Conference (“MWC”), Sun Belt Conference (“SBC”). There were no automatic playoff bids available for the Pac-12 Conference because it has been reduced to two teams after being pillaged by the now-16 team Big 12 and 18-team Big Ten (at least it still exists as a football conference, unlike the now-former Big East, which remains a basketball power but disbanded for football after the 2013 season). There is also no automatic big for the three “independents,” although we will see that one of the independent schools, Notre Dame, earned its way into the 12-team playoff by virtue of its fifth place ranking. Army had been an independent through the 2023 season before joining the AAC, following Navy, which had made the same move from independent to the AAC in 2015.
After the five guaranteed spots are accounted for, the next best seven teams in the final College Football Playoff Ranking make the field. The top-four seeds in the 12-team playoffs are given to the four highest ranked conference champions in the field and receive first-round byes. To illustrate how it worked this year, let us look at the playoff bracket:
| Playoff Seed | Team | Conference | CFP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon | Big Ten* | 1 |
| 2 | Georgia | SEC* | 2 |
| 3 | Boise State | MWC* | 9 |
| 4 | Arizona State | Big 12* | 12 |
| 5 | Texas | SEC | 3 |
| 6 | Penn State | Big Ten | 4 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | Independent | 5 |
| 8 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 6 |
| 9 | Tennessee | SEC | 7 |
| 10 | Indiana | Big Ten | 8 |
| 11 | SMU | ACC | 10 |
| 12 | Clemson | ACC* | 16 |
Before continuing, keep in mind that the playoff field was finalized on December 8, one day after the the nine conferences (excluding the two-team Pac-12) played their conference championship games.
Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, Arizona State, and Clemson secured the five guaranteed bids by winning their respective conference championships. Because Clemson was ranked outside the final top 12, it pushed out one team, in this case Alabama, which had a top-12 ranking.
But because this article is about Army’s playoff prospects, we are most interested in Boise State. Boise State won the MWC and secured an automatic playoff berth because it was the highest ranked of the five non-power-four conference champions, placing 9th in the final College Football Playoff Ranking. Army, Champion of the American Athletic Conference, was the other non-power-four conference champion ranked in the top 25, coming in at 22. There were two other non-power-four schools in the final pre-playoff top-25, UNLV and Memphis and 24th and 25th respectively, but neither won their conference championships (UNLV lost to Boise State in the MWC Championship Ggame and Memphis was in the AAC, which was won by Army). Thus, Army was the runner-up for the guaranteed non-power-four playoff bid.
(Note: There are many post-season bowl games for the non-playoff teams with winning records. The bowl games are also selected after the conference championship games are completed.)
The Army-Navy Game Question
Now we turn to my question.
Army was in the mix for an automatic playoff bid through the end of the regular season. The team had its best season in a long time, capping off an 11-1 campaign going into the playoff selection by defeating Tulane 35-14 on December 7 in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.
With only Boise State standing between Army and a trip to the College Football Playoffs, it is not hard to imagine how Army could have made the playoffs, although it is more likely than not that their non-playoff fate was sealed before conference championship weekend. Boise State had to win its own December 7 conference championship game against UNLV to punch its playoff ticket. I suspect that even Boise State’s losing would not have allowed Army into the playoffs. Even with UNLV’s loss against Boise State, which was UNLV’s third loss of the season (one of its two regular season losses was also against Boise State), UNLV was only two spots behind Army in the final playoff ranking. While I cannot say it is impossible that Army would have received the nod if UNLV beat Boise State, the evidence suggests to me that Boise State and UNLV were effectively competing for a playoff spot in the MWC Championship Game.
However, had Army finished its regular season undefeated, things may have been different. Army’s sole loss came against Notre Dame, which ended up making the playoffs without the benefit of an automatic bid as the fifth-ranked team in the final playoff ranking, and, as of December 4, 2024, has won its first two playoff games to advance to the national semifinals. Army’s coach made his best case that Army should have received a nod based in part on the fact that its sole loss came against one of the top teams in the country, but that argument was likely undercut by the margin of the loss, Notre Dame defeated Army 49-14 on November 24. Boise State had a similarly strong opponent in its one loss, which came on September 8, 2024, against the number one overall seed going into the playoffs, undefeated Big Ten champion Oregon, by a score of 37-34 on a last-second field goal. In the world that existed, Army would have probably have had to defeat Notre Dame to plausibly out-rank the MWC Champion. Unfortunately for Army, it did not catch Notre Dame on a bad day like Northern Illinois – a team which finished the season with a record of 8-5 in the Mid-American Conference – did when it stunned Notre Dame 16-14 earlier in the season.
There are two things that set Army apart from every other team in the playoff mix, and those two things are related. Firstly, Army only played 11 regular season games going into the selection while every other team played 12. Secondly, and relatedly, Army had a regular season non-conference game between the playoff selection and the playoffs. That game of course was the traditional Army-Navy rivalry game, which was scheduled for and played on December 14, 2024, after all the conference champions, playoff selections, and bowl game arrangements had been decided. When I saw this, I was curious how the playoffs would have accommodated the Army-Navy game had Army secured a playoff bid. I became more interested in the question when, Navy, which had been briefly ranked in the top-25 and had a terrific season in its own right, defeated Army 31-13, thus handing Army its second loss of the season. This led to my question.
What would have happened had Army made the playoffs, or not to prejudge the question, been in playoff position, and then lost 31-13 to Navy one week later?
It turns out that my question about the playoff implications of the Army-Navy game had occurred to the College Football Playoff management committee well before it was known that Army would play its way into the periphery of the playoff mix. I quote from an April 24, 2024 report on the playoff committee’s planning:
The impact of future Army-Navy games was also among the firm decisions made during the CFP meetings. The annual rivalry between storied military academies will not be taken under consideration for CFP contention because it will be played after the selections have been made.
Thus, had Army secured a playoff bid on November 8, its loss to Navy would have had no effect on the playoffs. One thing I had not thought about before posing my question was how this scenario would have been handled under the former four-team playoff system:
Previously, if a CFP spot hypothetically came come down to the Army-Navy game, the selection committee could have held [off making a decision] until conclusion of the game. The protocols called for a teleconference immediately after the game to finalize any rankings or selection. In a 12-team playoff world, the time frame was too tight.
Neither Army nor Navy were ever seriously in play for one of the only four playoff positions under the 2014-2022 format. However, under that system – had there been a year when Army or Navy was in playoff position, the selection committee would have had the discretion to hold off on finalizing the playoff field for one week until after the Army-Navy game. This was no longer possible under the 12-team playoff format for logistical reasons, notwithstanding the fact that the 12-team format is what makes Army or Navy earning a playoff bid far more of a realistic, albeit still very outside, possibility.
(Note: Cincinnati made the 4-team playoff in 2021 as the undefeated champion of the American Athletic Conference, with its best win having – fittingly enough for this article – come in a non-conference game against Notre Dame, but Cincinnati was the only non power-four team to make the playoffs from 2014-2023. In the case of Army, I am not sure that it is absolutely certain they would have out-ranked Boise State (rightly or wrongly) even if they had defeated Notre Dame, much less been in the mix for a spot in a four-team playoff system.)
To the playoff committee’s credit, it considered the Army-Navy game issue and went so far as to consult with Army and Navy to see if they would be open to moving their annual rivalry game up the schedule in order to allow it to be considered for playoff purposes. However, the committee reported that Army and Navy declined to move the game:
‘They both stressed that they wanted to keep their game where it’s currently scheduled,’ Hancock said. ‘Understanding that neither team would have the benefit of an additional data point to be considered by the committee.’
This quote contains an interesting point – In a year when both Army and Navy field good teams, a win against the other could benefit the playoff case of the winner. Navy started this season 6-0 and was on the periphery of the Coach’s and AP top-25 polls before, like Army, suffering a lopsided loss against Notre Dame. Navy struggled down the stretch, losing 3 of 5 going into its rivalry game, including a 35-0 loss against the same Tulane team that Army defeated 35-14 to win the American Athletic Conference championship. But Navy was still one of Army’s stronger opponents. While the Army-Navy game would not have changed the outcome in a ranking battle between 1-loss Army and 1-loss Boise State, we can conceive of scenarios where it would have been relevant. For example, had UNLV defeated Boise State in the MWC championship game, one could imagine how the Army defeating Navy could have helped its cause in what would have been a close race for the automatic non-power five playoff nod. Moreover, had Army defeated Notre Dame, a win over a quality Navy team would have helped its case for being ranked ahead of the 1-loss Boise State squad. Of course – this cuts both ways. Had the Army-Navy been played earlier and transpired the same way it did on December 14, Army’s playoff ambitions would have ended before conference championship weekend.
While the committee settled on not counting the Army-Navy game for playoff purposes, it acknowledged that the new format combined with Army having switched from being an independent to joining the American Athletic Conference in 2024 made the complicated service academy playoff scenario far more likely than it was before:
‘It’s one thing when you do a four-team playoff and you’re not playing until the end of the month. And especially now, with that G5 slot, there’s a reasonable chance with a good season that a service academy could have a great year and be a playoff team.’
Had Army made the playoffs, it would have had a three week run of conference championship game, rivalry game against Navy, and first playoff round.
As we know, Army was a live playoff contender in the final weeks of the season, I return to a USA Today article published before the Army-Notre Dame game:
It’s important to note Army’s rivalry game against Navy won’t contribute to its CFP chances, as the matchup comes on Dec. 14, six days after the 12-team field is set. If Army wins out and makes the playoff, its spot in the 12-team would already be set, regardless of the rivalry game outcome.
Credit to the selection committee for contemplating a seemingly unlikely issue that ended up being a real issue in this first year of the new 12-team college football playoff system.
Additional Issue: Army and Navy Only Play 11 Regular Season Games Before Playoff Selection
After I initially drafted the foregoing, I came across an update to our story. On December 27, 2024, Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports reported that “[t]he NCAA Football Oversight Committee is expected to consider allowing Army and Navy to each play an extra regular-season game prior to the American Athletic Conference championship game in early December, multiple sources told CBS Sports.” This presents the issue of the Army-Navy game and the playoff selection differently than the earlier reports.
The issue as I understand it goes as follows: The NCAA has a rule limiting college football teams to 12 regular season games. Regular season games do not include conference championship games, bowl games, or playoff games. Every top-division college football team, with the exceptions of Army and Navy, play 12 regular season games before conference championship weekend and the playoff and bowl selection. Army and Navy, however, play 11 games before conference championship weekend and their 12th game one week later. (Note: This is not an issue for the third academy football team, Air Force, since it plays Army and Navy earlier in the season.)
In addition to the point that Army and Navy play one less game prior to the playoff and bowl selections, their rivalry game counts as a non-conference game, notwithstanding the fact that as of 2024, they play in the same conference, pursuant to a special arrangement. Both Army and Navy play eight conference games, leaving just three discretionary non-conference games before the playoff and bowl selection. However, in the case of Army and Navy, they only really have discretion on choosing one of those three non-conference games since they always play non-conference games against Air Force and Notre Dame. The second issue was not a problem (to the extent it is one) for Army prior to 2024 when it was an independent.
The CBS Sports article suggests that the idea of moving the Army-Navy game is still not under consideration. However, Mike Buddie, Army’s athletic director, explained that he is interested in changing the rules to allow Army and Navy to play an extra regular season game prior to conference championship weekend and the Army-Navy game. Mr. Buddie suggested that Army and Navy playing one less regular season game puts them at a disadvantage compared to the competition:
We thought, ’Hey, give us the opportunity if we want to schedule a 12th data point and be on the same footing with, for example, a Boise State this year, to have that option.
It is unclear whether Army and Navy will be permitted to play a 12th regular season game before the bowl selection, which would give them 13 regular season games in total counting their traditional rivalry game. Mr. Buddie noted that it may be too late to approve the idea for next season. But the issue bears watching for college football fans (not to mention everyone who roots for the academy teams) since, if nothing else, the 2024 season showed that the new playoff system makes it more possible for Army, Navy, or Air Force (Air Force plays in the Mountain West Conference) to qualify for the playoffs if everything breaks just right.
For whatever it is worth, I harbor some doubt that a 12th regular season game before the playoff selection would significantly change their playoff prospects. More often than not, Army and Navy would have to go undefeated to secure a playoff bid – I think that as the conferences stand today, Air Force would theoretically have a better chance of making it with one loss on account of its stronger conference (although that may change in the near future with what is left of the Pac-12 preparing to pillage the MWC). It could make a positive difference if Army and Navy scheduled a strong opponent, either on Notre Dame’s level or, more realistically for purposes of achieving an undefeated season, a notch or two below Notre Dame. But a win against a team that is not at least on the edge of the top-25 (Army’s Conference Championship win against Tulane meets this criteria, as does Navy’s early-season win against Memphis, which was 25th in the final playoff ranking) would be unlikely to move the needle.
Final Thoughts
In conclusion, I tip my hat to both Army and Navy for excellent football seasons put together by players who have a great deal more academic and other non-football college activities on their plates than most of their non-academy rivals. Navy put an exclamation point on its great season by defeating the traditionally powerful Oklahoma Sooners 21-20 in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. Army had been slated to face off against fellow conference champion Marshall (Sun Belt champion) in the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl, but instead faced 5-7 Louisiana Tech after Marshall had to withdraw from the game due to more than two dozen of its players entering the transfer portal. Army defeated Louisiana Tech 27-6, securing the team’s first-ever 12-win season and finishing with a 12-2 record. In addition to Army’s individual record, Austen Bundy at Fansided noted that this was the first season in which Army and Navy both won at least 10 games. Combined with Air Force ending the season on a four game winning streak to finish 5-7 after a 1-7 start, things are looking up for the academy football teams even as college football changes in ways that would not seem to be conducive to the academy programs competing for postseason playoff berths.
