I came across an interesting NBA statistical tidbit in a CBS Sports article which appeared on Hacker News page one of all places:
The defending champion Boston Celtics are on pace to become the first team in NBA history to attempt more 3-pointers than 2-pointers. It’s not going to be close, either. As of this writing, the Celtics are taking 11.1 more 3s per game than 2s.
As a threshold matter, I will note that the above quote is almost true, but not quite true (unless I am missing something, do tell if I am). The 2017-18, 2018-19, and 2019-20 Houston Rockets took more three pointers than two pointers, but it is true that the 2024-25 Celtics, which are all but certain to be the third team in the more threes than two club, will shatter the three point attempt rate record set by the 2018-19 Rockets.
(Note: Three point attempt rate refers to the percent of an NBA team’s shots taken from three point range. For example, if a team shoots 20 times and takes 5 three pointers, its three-point attempt rate is 0.250. The attempt rate controls for pace, meaning that it is possible that a slower and/or more turnover-prone team could attempt fewer three pointers than a faster team while having a higher attempt rate.)
The CBS Sports article is mainly concerned with how to reduce the number of three point attempts in the NBA. The NBA adopted the three-point line for the 1979-80 season. Teams were largely slow to adopt the three pointer in earnest, but the three point attempt rate increased every season from 1984-95 through 1996-97. The mid-90s surge was fueled by the NBA’s decision to slightly shorten the three-point line beginning in the 1994-95 season, but the league saw enough after three seasons and returned the line to its former, greater length, which is where it remains today. The 1996-97 league-wide three pointer records (both total attempts and attempt rate) would hold until 2006-07. Since then, the NBA has become much more three-point happy – what had been a gradual upward trend through 2015-16 began to break open in 2016-17, peaking prior to the current season in 2021-22. As of January 4, 2025, the league-wide three point attempt rate in 2024-2025 is nearly double the 2006-07 and 1996-97 marks. Moreover, the NBA also plays at a much higher pace today than it did in those seasons, meaning that the total difference in three point v. two point attempts is more dramatic than the [difference in three point attempt rate???].
Why Am I Writing This Article?
I have noted in earlier NBA articles that I followed the NBA very closely from 1997 through the 2015-16 season (granting that period begins when I was very young). The CBS Sports article noted that the 2024-25 Celtics are on pace to set some stunning three point attempt records. I was a Celtics fan – and I am here to defend the honor of the Celtics of my youth. Someone with cursory knowledge of the period during which I most closely followed the NBA may think that I am referring to the NBA Champion Celtics of 2007-08, which I noted in an earlier study posted the best relative defensive rating of the previous 51 NBA Champions. However – context matters. The 2007-08 Celtics, as great as they were, have nothing to do with this article – or should I say that team has nothing to do with today’s article except for one player, the 2008 NBA Finals MVP, Paul Pierce.
I am here to defend the honor of the Paul Pierce-Antoine Walker-led Celtics teams of the very early 2000s: Specifically the 2001-02 and 2002-03 editions.
The Celtics only posted three winning seasons between 1992-93 and their dominant 66-16 championship team in 2007-08. Two of these seasons came in 2001-02 and 02-03 (the Celtics also made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001-02). Those Celtics teams were known for their Pierce-Walker one-two punch: Mr. Pierce was arguably one of the top-five wings in the NBA and Mr. Walker was my favorite All Star of the era. The other thing those Celtics teams were known for was shooting three pointers – a large number of them. Both Messrs. Pierce and Walker were three-point happy. Mr. Pierce ranked 10th, 3rd, and 10th in NBA three point attempts in 2000-01, 01-02, and 02-03 respectively. But while Mr. Pierce was the Celtics’ best player, Mr. Walker was the face of the three-point brigade, leading the league in three point attempts in all three of the seasons I noted in the previous sentence while only leading the league in makes in 2000-01. This is not the article to revisit Antoine Walker, who was divisive at the time for his admittedly (even for the era) poor scoring efficiency and the volume his three-point shooting,. However, I like to think of him as a misunderstood artist, the greatest shimmier of all time, and the author of the finest quote in sports history in explaining why he took so many threes. But setting aside the legend of Antoine Walker for a later discussion, let us turn to his three point shooting in the three seasons he led the NBA in attempts.
Season | Walker 3M | Walker 3A | Walker Rel % | League 3% | 3P+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00-01 | 221 | 603 | .367 | .354 | 104 |
01-02 | 222 | 645 | .344 | .354 | 97 |
02-03 | 188 | 582 | .323 | .349 | 92 |
(3P+ is a measure of how Mr. Walker compared to the league average in three point percentage, with 100 being average.)
Mr. Walker took threes at an extraordinarily high volume for the era and hovered around league average in accuracy in 2000-01 (a bit above) and 2001-02 (a bit below) before struggling on slightly lower volume in 2002-03. One decently well-founded critique of Mr. Walker was his poor shot selection on threes, but I suppose we ought to take that into account in assessing his accuracy. In any event, while the Celtics as a teams were very three point happy for the era, they would not have been known for threes but for Mr. Walker, who took 32% of the team’s three point tries in the three seasons he led the league, peaking at 37% of the Celtics’ league-leading attempts in 2000-01.
While the Celtics of 2024-25 are on pace to take more than twice the number of three point attempts as the Celtics of 2002-03 (which took the most of the three early 2000s league-leading Celtics teams), I had a hunch that the 02-03 Celtics were more impressive. How so? Instead of comparing the number of threes that the Celtics are taking in 2024-2025 with the Celtics of 2002-03, let us look at how these teams compare to the league average number of three point attempts in their given year.
In order to conduct this comparison – we will evaluate league-wide three-point shooting in two ways. First, going back to the first season with a three point line, 1979-80, and working our way through the in-progress 2024-25 campaign, I will take the number of three pointers attempted by the NBA’s three point leader (raw attempts) and divide that by the league average. Second, I will take the league team leader in three point attempt rate for each season, meaning what percentage of that team’s shots were three pointers, and compare it to the league average for each season in question.
Raw Three Point Attempt Leaders vs League Average
Below, you will find a table listing every NBA season from 1979-80 to the current 2024-2025. For each season, I will list the team that led the NBA in three point attempts, the average number of three point attempts for all NBA seasons in the season in question, and then divide the leading team’s three point attempts by the league average. The result should give a general idea of how much the team that led the NBA in three point attempts in a given season deviated from its peers.
Season | 3PA Leader | Leader Attempts | Average | Quotient | Difference |
1979-80 | San Diego Clippers | 543 | 227 | 2.39 | 316 |
1980-81 | San Diego Clippers | 407 | 166 | 2.45 | 241 |
1981-82 | San Diego Clippers | 338 | 187 | 1.81 | 151 |
1982-83 | San Antonio Spurs | 308 | 185 | 1.66 | 123 |
1983-84 | Utah Jazz | 317 | 195 | 1.63 | 122 |
1984-85 | Dallas Mavericks | 443 | 257 | 1.72 | 186 |
1985-86 | Dallas Mavericks | 446 | 274 | 1.63 | 173 |
1986-87 | Dallas Mavericks | 653 | 388 | 1.71 | 265 |
1987-88 | Boston Celtics | 705 | 410 | 1.72 | 295 |
1988-89 | New York Knicks | 1147 | 537 | 2.14 | 610 |
1989-90 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 851 | 541 | 1.57 | 410 |
1990-91 | Denver Nuggets | 1059 | 586 | 1.81 | 473 |
1991-92 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1005 | 626 | 1.6 | 379 |
1992-93 | Phoenix Suns | 1095 | 734 | 1.49 | 361 |
1993-94 | Houston Rockets | 1285 | 811 | 1.58 | 474 |
1994-95 | Houston Rockets | 1757 | 1255 | 1.4 | 502 |
1995-96 | Dallas Mavericks | 2039 | 1316 | 1.55 | 723 |
1996-97 | Miami Heat | 1865 | 1377 | 1.35 | 488 |
1997-98 | Houston Rockets | 1670 | 1042 | 1.6 | 628 |
1998-99* | Sacramento Kings | 943 | 658 | 1.43 | 285 |
1999-00 | Sacramento Kings | 1656 | 1125 | 1.47 | 531 |
2000-01 | Boston Celtics | 1633 | 1124 | 1.45 | 509 |
2001-02 | Boston Celtics | 1946 | 1209 | 1.61 | 737 |
2002-03 | Boston Celtics | 2155 | 1204 | 1.79 | 951 |
2003-04 | Seattle SuperSonics | 1936 | 1224 | 1.58 | 712 |
2004-05 | Phoenix Suns | 2026 | 1292 | 1.62 | 734 |
2005-06 | Phoenix Suns | 2097 | 1310 | 1.6 | 787 |
2006-07 | Golden State Warriors | 1967 | 1389 | 1.42 | 578 |
2007-08 | Golden State Warriors | 2185 | 1485 | 1.47 | 700 |
2008-09 | New York Knicks | 2284 | 1486 | 1.54 | 798 |
2009-10 | Orlando Magic | 2241 | 1487 | 1.51 | 754 |
2010-11 | Orlando Magic | 2103 | 1477 | 1.41 | 626 |
2011-12* | Orlando Magic | 1785 | 1213 | 1.47 | 572 |
2012-13 | New York Knicks | 2371 | 1636 | 1.45 | 735 |
2013-14 | Houston Rockets | 2179 | 1766 | 1.23 | 413 |
2014-15 | Houston Rockets | 2680 | 1838 | 1.46 | 842 |
2015-16 | Golden State Warriors | 2592 | 1975 | 1.31 | 617 |
2016-17 | Houston Rockets | 3306 | 2214 | 1.49 | 1092 |
2017-18 | Houston Rockets | 3470 | 2378 | 1.46 | 1092 |
2018-19 | Houston Rockets | 3721 | 2625 | 1.39 | 1096 |
2019-20* | Houston Rockets | 3261 | 2408 | 1.35 | 853 |
2020-21 | Utah Jazz | 3098 | 2492 | 1.24 | 606 |
2021-22 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3386 | 2885 | 1.17 | 501 |
2022-23 | Golden State Warriors | 3540 | 2806 | 1.26 | 734 |
2023-24 | Boston Celtics | 3482 | 2879 | 1.21 | 603 |
2024-25** | Boston Celtics | 4125 | 3083 | 1.34 | 1042 |
As of January 4, 2025, the 2024-25 Celtics are on pace to shatter the single-season record for most three point field goals attempted, which was set by the 2018-19 Houston Rockets. However, the NBA as a whole is also on pace to set a new record for three point attempts. Thus, based on the current pace, the 24-25 Celtics are taking 34% more threes than the NBA average in 2024-25. Among league-leading teams only, that would be the eighth smallest difference between the league leader and the NBA average in our 46-season sample.
While the 2002-03 Celtics only took 2155 three point attempts (which was the record until 2006-07), NBA teams averaged 1204 three point attempts that season. Thus, the Celtics took 79% more three pointers as the league average, which stands as sixth biggest difference in our 46-season sample. Of the five teams ahead of the 2002-03 Celtics, only the third place 1988-89 New York Knicks and fifth place 1990-91 Denver Nuggets attempted more than 1000 three pointers, taking 1147 and 1059 respectively. The league average in the most three-point happy season ahead of the 2002-03 Celtics was 586 in 1990-91, less than half of the 1204 attempts teams averaged in 2002-03.
With these ideas in mind, we can properly appreciate the unique 2001-02 and 02-03 Celtics teams. Let us look at the biggest differences between the league leader and league average in three point attempts from our table for seasons where the average team attempted at least 1,000 three pointers.
- 2002-03 Boston Celtics (+1.79)
- 2004-05 Phoenix Suns (+1.62)
- 2001-02 Boston Celtics (+1.61)
- 1997-98 Houston Rockets (+1.60)
- 2004-05 Phoenix Suns (+1.60)
- 2003-04 Seattle SuperSonics (+1.58)
- 1995-96 Dallas Mavericks (+1.55)
- 2008-09 New York Knicks (+1.54)
- 2009-10 Orlando Magic (+1.51)
By this metric, the 2002-03 Celtics stand out from their peers. Astute readers may note that the percent more than average metric favors teams in low-volume three-point shooting seasons. For example, the median team in 1979-80 took 2.3 three pointers per game. In 2024-2025 thus far, that number is about 37. It goes without saying that it is easy to shoot three times more than 2.3 three pointers in a game, even in 1979-80. No matter how fast two teams play, I doubt that we will ever see a team take 111 three pointers in a single game. But the final column on my chart – the league average for total three point attempts being subtracted from the league leader, favors teams in high volume three point seasons in light of the fact that there are so many more threes being attempted. One would think the 2002-03 Celtics would falter under this metric on account of the fact that their raw number of three point attempts are quaint by 2024-25 standards – all 30 teams are on pace to take more threes this season than the Celtics did in 2002-03. Let us roll the top-nine raw differences in league leader three point attempts and league average:
- 2018-19 Houston Rockets (1,096)
- 2016-17 Houston Rockets (1,092)
- 2017-18 Houston Rockets (1,092)
- 2024-25 Boston Celtics (1,042)
- 2002-03 Boston Celtics (951)
- 2019-20 Houston Rockets (853)
- 2014-15 Houston Rockets (842)
- 2008-09 New York Knicks (798)
- 2005-06 Phoenix Suns (787)
The 24-25 Celtics are on pace to finish one spot ahead of the 02-03 Celtics, but only by a total margin of 91 three pointers despite the dramatic difference in three point attempts to work with. The other five spots in the top seven are occupied by James Harden-led Houston Rockets teams from 2014-15 through 2019-20.
Given the foregoing stat, one may think that the 2002-03 Celtics played at a fast pace. A higher pace usually corresponds to more field goal attempts – although there are other factors at play. 2002-03 was a very slow season by today’s standards (the kids will not understand). Even the fastest teams back then would be slow today. For example, the Sacramento Kings led the NBA in pace in 2002-03 at 95.4 possessions per game. In 2023-2024, 29 out of 30 teams played faster than the 2002-03 league-leading Kings, with the New York Knicks at 95.2 possessions being the sole exception. Now let us look at the pace three Celtics teams in our sample:
Season | Celtics PACE | Pace Rank | 3PA | 3P-per-100 |
---|---|---|---|---|
00-01 | 92.6 | 15/29 | 1633 | 21.3 |
01-02 | 92.5 | 5/29 | 1946 | 25.5 |
02-03 | 90.9 | 17/29 | 2155 | 28.7 |
The Celtics ranked in the bottom half of the NBA in pace in 2002-03 after being one of the fastest teams in 2001-02. Their raw three point volume in 2002-03 came in a below-average number of possessions. The pace factor is evinced by the fact that while the Celtics’ record for total three point attempts in a season fell in 2007-08, its record for three point attempts per 100 possessions held until 2009-10.
(Aside: Speaking of pace adjustment, Ray Allen, who led the NBA in three-point makes in 2001-02 and finished between Messrs. Walker and Pierce in attempts, actually attempted more threes per 100 possessions than Mr. Walker. Some of Mr. Walker’s raw volume can be accounted for by the fact that he led the NBA in minutes played (3,406) while finishing third in minutes per game (42.0).)
Three Point Attempt Rate
Now let us conduct the same survey, but use three point attempt rate instead of raw attempts. As a reminder – three point attempt rate is simply a team’s three point attempts divided by its total field goal attempts. This stat eliminates pace from the equation since, for example, a team with 20 three point attempts out of 80 total field goal attempts has the same three point attempt rate – .250 – as a team with 23 three point attempts out of 92 field goal attempts.
Season | 3PAr Leader | Team 3PAr | NBA 3PAr | Quotient | Difference |
1979-80 | San Diego Clippers | 0.072 | 0.031 | 2.323 | 0.041 |
1980-81 | San Diego Clippers | 0.056 | 0.023 | 2.434 | 0.033 |
1981-82 | San Diego Clippers | 0.048 | 0.026 | 1.846 | 0.022 |
1982-83 | San Antonio Spurs | 0.042 | 0.025 | 1.68 | 0.017 |
1983-84 | Utah Jazz | 0.044 | 0.027 | 1.63 | 0.017 |
1984-85 | Dallas Mavericks | 0.061 | 0.035 | 1.743 | 0.026 |
1985-86 | Dallas Mavericks | 0.061 | 0.038 | 1.605 | 0.023 |
1986-87 | Dallas Mavericks | 0.089 | 0.053 | 1.679 | 0.036 |
1987-88 | Boston Celtics | 0.102 | 0.057 | 1.789 | 0.045 |
1988-89 | New York Knicks | 0.151 | 0.074 | 2.04 | 0.077 |
1989-90 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 0.122 | 0.076 | 1.605 | 0.046 |
1990-91 | Houston Rockets | 0.136 | 0.082 | 1.518 | 0.054 |
1991-92 | Houston Rockets | 0.139 | 0.087 | 1.673 | 0.052 |
1992-93 | Houston Rockets | 0.159 | 0.104 | 1.529 | 0.055 |
1993-94 | Houston Rockets | 0.191 | 0.117 | 1.632 | 0.074 |
1994-95 | Houston Rockets | 0.267 | 0.188 | 1.42 | 0.079 |
1995-96 | Dallas Mavericks | 0.274 | 0.2 | 1.37 | 0.074 |
1996-97 | Miami Heat | 0.299 | 0.212 | 1.41 | 0.087 |
1997-98 | Houston Rockets | 0.256 | 0.159 | 1.61 | 0.097 |
1998-99 | Houston Rockets | 0.241 | 0.168 | 1.434 | 0.073 |
1999-00 | Houston Rockets | 0.244 | 0.167 | 1.461 | 0.077 |
2000-01 | Boston Celtics | 0.252 | 0.17 | 1.482 | 0.082 |
2001-02 | Boston Celtics | 0.289 | 0.181 | 1.597 | 0.108 |
2002-03 | Boston Celtics | 0.331 | 0.182 | 1.819 | 0.149 |
2003-04 | Seattle SuperSonics | 0.294 | 0.187 | 1.572 | 0.107 |
2004-05 | Phoenix Suns | 0.289 | 0.196 | 1.474 | 0.097 |
2005-06 | Phoenix Suns | 0.293 | 0.202 | 1.45 | 0.091 |
2006-07 | Houston Rockets | 0.29 | 0.213 | 1.361 | 0.077 |
2007-08 | Orlando Magic | 0.322 | 0.222 | 1.45 | 0.1 |
2008-09 | Orlando Magic | 0.335 | 0.224 | 1.495 | 0.111 |
2009-10 | Orlando Magic | 0.35 | 0.222 | 1.577 | 0.128 |
2010-11 | Orlando Magic | 0.328 | 0.222 | 1.477 | 0.106 |
2011-12 | Orlando Magic | 0.346 | 0.226 | 1.531 | 0.12 |
2012-13 | New York Knicks | 0.354 | 0.243 | 1.457 | 0.111 |
2013-14 | Houston Rockets | 0.33 | 0.259 | 1.274 | 0.071 |
2014-15 | Houston Rockets | 0.392 | 0.268 | 1.462 | 0.124 |
2015-16 | Houston Rockets | 0.37 | 0.285 | 1.298 | 0.085 |
2016-17 | Houston Rockets | 0.462 | 0.316 | 1.462 | 0.146 |
2017-18 | Houston Rockets | 0.502 | 0.337 | 1.49 | 0.165 |
2018-19 | Houston Rockets | 0.519 | 0.359 | 1.446 | 0.16 |
2019-20 | Houston Rockets | 0.501 | 0.384 | 1.304 | 0.117 |
2020-21 | Utah Jazz | 0.488 | 0.392 | 1.271 | 0.096 |
2021-22 | Utah Jazz | 0.468 | 0.399 | 1.172 | 0.069 |
2022-23 | Dallas Mavericks | 0.487 | 0.387 | 1.258 | 0.1 |
2023-24 | Boston Celtics | 0.471 | 0.395 | 1.192 | 0.076 |
2024-25* | Boston Celtics | 0.553 | 0.423 | 1.307 | 0.13 |
The 2024-25 Celtics currently have a 30.7% higher three point attempt rate than the league average. This is high by recent standards – surpassing the percent difference between the league leader and the league average in each of the previous five seasons. However, it is still the eighth smallest percent difference in our sample.
Meanwhile, the 2002-03 Celtics had an 84.6% higher three point attempt rate than the league average that season, which is fifth most extreme on our chart. Three of the four teams ahead of the Celtics are San Diego Clippers in the first three seasons with a three point line, and the other is the 1988-89 New York Knicks, which set the mark in a season where the league attempted less than half as many three pointers as in 2002-03. After the 2002-03 Celtics check in at fifth, we have to go all the way down to 13th, the 1997-98 Houston Rockets, which had a three point attempt rate 61% higher than the league average, to find another entrant from a season where NBA teams averaged at least 1,000 three point attempts on the season. The biggest percent difference since the Celtics’ 2002-03 season is the 2009-10 Orlando Magic, which had a three point attempt rate 57.7% higher than the league average.
Again – the percent difference metric does favor low volume three point seasons. Similarly to the first survey, I decided to slice things in a way that favors the extremely high volume seasons of recent past. For my next table, I simply subtracted from the league leader’s three point attempt rate the league average. Surely the 2002-03 Celtics will fall off:
- 2017-18 Houston Rockets (0.165)
- 2018-19 Houston Rockets (0.160)
- 2002-03 Boston Celtics (0.149)
- 2016-17 Houston Rockets (0.146)
- 2024-25 Boston Celtics (0.130)
- 2009-10 Orlando Magic (0.128)
- 2014-15 Houston Rockets (0.124)
- 2011-12 Orlando Magic (0.120)
- 2019-20 Houston Rockets (0.117)
The 02-03 Celtics’ ranking actually improves from fifth in the percent difference chart to third in the raw difference chart despite the deluge of high volume three point seasons in the 2010s and 20s. Here again, the James Harden-led Rockets teams dominate the chart, taking five out of nine spots in the top-nine. The 2024-25 Celtics look like a near-certain bet to stay in the top-nine, although it is not certain that they will hold onto the fifth position.
Final Take-Aways
Going into the survey, I thought that the 2002-03 Celtics would do well (where well is defined as proving that they were extraordinarily three-point happy compared to their contemporaries) based on the fact that I followed the NBA at the time and have a decent wealth of statistical knowledge from the era. However, given the extreme increase in three point attempts, I was not absolutely certain how the 2002-03 Celtics would measure up (I will concede that I did not recall going in how much farther the 2002-03 Celtics were ahead of the 2001-02 edition, which was also contemporaneously identified with its high-volume three-point shooting). My survey is not sophisticated and, as was the case with my other surveys, someone with more time and inclination could do much more with the idea. Moreover, I will submit that it would be instructive to study three point attempts per 100 possessions, but doing so would have been too laborious for me. I think my simple findings make a plausible case that when we consider seasons in which NBA teams took a meaningful number of three point attempts, the 2002-03 Celtics were the most remarkable (for better or for worse, granting they came in an anemic 24th place out of 29 teams in offensive rating – being points per 100 possessions) relative to their contemporaries The 2024-25 Celtics take far more threes than the 2002-03 edition and an eye-catching total even relative to the most bombs-away season in NBA history, but the 2002-03 Celtics were more impressive (using a very particular definition).
Having defended the honor of the Antoine Walker and the 2002-03 Celtics, I decided to conclude with a couple other fun notes.
Most of the three point leading teams were good teams with above average offenses (the 2001-02 and 2002-03 Celtics had the odd combination of posting winning records with below-average, trifecta-heavy offenses).
Of the teams to lead the league in either raw three point attempts or three point attempt rate, we only find three champions: The 2023-24 Boston Celtics and the 1993-94 and 94-95 Houston Rockets. In my does defense win championships survey, we saw that the 2023-24 Celtics had the best relative offensive rating of the last 51 NBA Champions. The two Rockets champions, however, had the 3rd and 9th worst relative offensive ratings of the last 51 NBA champions, with the 1993-94 Rockets actually having been slightly below average on offensive in the regular season.
Speaking of the Rockets, they have led the NBA in three point attempt rate in 16 out of the 46 completed seasons with a three point line, streaks of 7, 5, and 3 consecutive seasons. The Rockets fare slightly worse in the raw three point attempts, having only led the league 10 times thanks to not always having been among the league’s fastest teams. I noted in my does defense win championships survey of NBA champions that the Golden State Warriors boasted many of the highest pace NBA champions. The Warriors have yet to lead the NBA in three point attempt rate (perhaps a mild surprise given their reputation), but they led the NBA in total attempts on three occasions, including two in which the Rockets led the NBA in rate. While my survey focuses on the three-point shooting of several Boston Celtics teams, there can be no doubt that no franchise has been more in love with the long-ball than the Houston Rockets.