United States Senate Republicans flipped enough seats in the November 2024 election to return to the majority in January 2025 for the first time in four years. But the caucus had an important order of business to attend to before its new members are sworn in on January 3, 2024. The Republican Senate leader has been, since January 3, 2007, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. While Senator McConnell will remain in the Senate, he is stepping away from a leadership role. On November 13, 2024, the Republican conference voted for its leadership positions. Senator McConnell will be replaced as leader by Senator John Thune of South Dakota, who is currently in the first half of his fourth term in the Senate.
I noted in a recent article that I followed the 2004 General Election. When I saw that Mr. Thune was the front-runner to be the new Senate Majority Leader in advance of the November 13 vote, my thoughts were drawn back to 2004. While the 2004 general elections are best remembered for then-President George W. Bush securing a second term in office with a narrow victory over then-Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, it also featured a historic Senate election. Then-Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota, leader of the Democratic caucus, was seeking a fourth term in office. While Mr. Daschle was Senate Minority Leader going into the 2004 election he had briefly served as Senate Majority Leader from January 3 to January 20, 2021, and from June 6, 2001 to January 3, 2003. Mr. Daschle was challenged in the 2004 race by none other than John Thune. Mr. Thune had challenged South Dakota’s other Senator, Tim Johnson in 2002 and lost by just 524 voters (49.62% to 49.47%). He returned in 2004 to challenge the Democratic leader in the Senate. The race was expected to be close leading up to the election and there were reasons to like Mr. Thune’s chances. Not only had he come very close to unseating South Dakota’s other incumbent just two years earlier, but South Dakota was a reliably red state in most respects, notwithstanding its two Democratic Senators. That disposition was stronger in a presidential year, and President George W. Bush would carry the state 59.91% to 38.44% against Mr. Kerry, a slightly smaller margin than he had won the state by four years earlier. Conversely, however, Mr. Daschle was not only an entrenched incumbent, but also one of the most prominent senators in the country. Senate leaders seldom lose; the last time a party leader lost a Senate election was Arizona’s Ernest McFarland in 1952 in a race against future presidential candidate Barry Goldwater. However, 2004 would see McFarland gain company. Mr. Thune proved that the second time was the charm, narrowly defeating Mr. Daschle by a margin of 4,508 votes (50.58% to 49.42%) in what was the cherry on top of the best election night that national Republicans would see until 2010.
Thus, Mr. Thune, the incoming Senate Majority Leader, won his seat by defeating a former Senate Majority Leader and then-current Senate Minority Leader two decades ago.
I was curious whether there were any other cases wherein someone who became Senate Majority Leader won his or her seat by defeating a current-or-former Senate Majority Leader. According to the United States Senate itself, the concept of Senate Majority Leader, as it exists today, goes back to the 63rd Congress (1913-15). While one can quibble, I will use this as our starting point. It did not take long for me to confirm my suspicion that Mr. Thune will be the first Senate Majority Leader to have first gained office by defeating a former Senate Majority Leader. Since the 63rd Congress, only four current or former Senate Majority Leaders lost bids for re-election: James Watson of Indiana in 1920, Scott Lewis of Illinois in 1950, Ernest McFarland of Arizona in 1952, and Mr. Daschle of South Dakota in 2004. We did have one close call wherein the individual who defeated a current or former Senator Majority Leader himself ascended to a position of leadership. In 1950, the Senate Majority Leader, Scott W. Lewis of Illinois, lost his re-election bid to Everett M. Dirksen. Mr. Dirksen repeatedly won re-election and was selected by Republicans as leader in 1959, and he held that position until his death in office in 1971. The Republicans were in the minority for the entirety of Dirksen’s tenure as leader, so this is a case of a Senate Minority Leader having first won office by defeating a Senate Majority Leader.
There are several reasons why the Daschle-Thune Majority Leader succession is rare. Firstly, many Senate Majority Leaders are relatively insulated from the dangers of re-election. For example, Senator Thune has won his second, third, and fourth elections uncontested and then with 71.83, and 69.63 percent of the vote respectively. The outgoing Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer of New York, has won all five of his Senate elections by at least 10 percentage points. There are exceptions, see for example then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s relatively close re-election win in 2010, but Senate leaders are seldom drawn from the most vulnerable seats in the caucus. Secondly, in light of the fact that there are 50 States, each having two Senators, it is unlikely on its face that in the rare event a current or former Majority Leader loses re-election that the incoming Senator will eventually become Majority Leader. But I suppose if one were to guess the state that would be the first to produce a genuine Senate Majority Leader succession, one would surely guess South Dakota, one of five states with less than 1,000,000 people and the fifth least populated state in the country.
